EV Calculator

Expected value of the all-tiles strategy: deploy s ETH on every one of the 25 tiles, so you always hold a slice of the winning tile.

Inputs

Emission and jackpot default to live contract values.

Pot P

ETH

Per-tile deploy s

ETH

Jackpot J

ETH

GLD emission / round

GLD

GLD price

USD

ETH price

USD

GLD proceeds

Results per round

Your share of the winning tile: 33.33% · total spend 0.025 ETH

Gross ETH back

0.0225 ETH

≈ $67.5

ETH only (net)

-0.0025 ETH

≈ $-7.5

Net + GLD (ex-jackpot)

-0.002489 ETH

≈ $-7.47

Net + GLD + jackpot EV

-0.001956 ETH

≈ $-5.87

GLD EV / round$0.0333

Jackpot EV / round (1/625)$1.6

Break-even pot (ex-jackpot)— (never profitable at this GLD price)

Break-even GLD price (at this pot)≈ $22.5

Disclaimer: EV is a mathematical expectation under uniformity assumptions, not a promise. Actual rounds vary with other deployers' behavior, and GLD/ETH prices move. You can lose everything. 18+.